中国的政府存款:口径、规模与宏观政策含义

Chinese Government Deposits:Measurement and Macroeconomic Implications

近年来,中国的政府存款暴涨,财政性存款和机关团体存款都呈现出快速增长趋势,对宏观经济和宏观调控政策产生了巨大影响。本文以中央银行资产负债表和金融机构信贷收支表为基础,分析财政性存款和机关团体存款的变化趋势及其背后的制度特征,并将其用于分析政府存款的货币效应和财政效应。政府存款的增长,在很大程度上主导了货币政策,严重影响了央行执行货币政策的独立性。政府存款的增长对应着巨大的社会资源损失,表现为利率损失和财政损失。更严重的是,政府存款尤其是机关团体存款的增长,已经完全对冲了当前积极财政政策的扩张效果。打破财政性紧缩的关键,在于推进机关团体等事业单位财务制度和管理制度改革,使市场配置资源模式深化到公共服务领域。

Chinese Government Deposits（GD） soared during the last decade. The steady and fast growth of Fiscal Deposits （FD） and Deposits of Government Departments ~ Organizations （OD） has a tremendous impact on the economy and macroeconomic policy. Based on Balance Sheet of Monetary Authority and Credit Funds of Financial Institutions and through analyzing the trends and the institutional characteristics underlying FD and OD, this paper establishes a two-stage model of fiscal expenditure to analyze monetary policy as well as fiscal policy implications of GD. We find that the growth of government deposits largely dominates the monetary policy, seriously disturbs the monetary authority to conduct independent monetary policy. Furthermore, the growth of government deposits reveals huge loss of social resources, including the interest rates loss and fiscal loss. More importantly, the growth of GD, especially the growth of OD, has already fully hedged the ongoing expansionary fiscal policy and has brought a real extractive effect, deteriorating economic growth. Keys to breaking the fiscal extraction are to promote government expenditure reform and to realize the market allocation in the public service sector.