农业劳动力短缺对粮食生产的影响——基于13个粮食主产区的实证分析

The Effects of the Shortage of Agricultural Labor Force on Grain Production——An Empirical Analysis based on 13 Major Grain Producing Areas

新世纪以来,粮食主产区农业劳动力数量和比重持续下降,劳动力价格不断攀升,且劳动力呈现结构性短缺。非农部门劳动力需求增加、农村家庭劳动力供给减少以及农业生产自身劳动力需求减少为劳动力短缺的三大主因。农业劳动力短缺对粮食生产的影响是一把"双刃剑":一方面,它容易导致土地粗放经营,复种指数下降和耕地撂荒等问题;另一方面,它诱致资本等投入品替代劳动和新的经营方式代替旧的经营方式,是加快转变农业发展方式的一个契机。基于粮食主产区总体以及分区域的计量结果分析,农业劳动力短缺对粮食生产并不具有显著的消极影响。

Since the new century, the number and proportion of agricultural labor force in major grain producing areas steady declined, the price of labor continually rose, and structural shortage emerged. The three reasons for the shortage of agricultural labor force were that labor demand in the non-agricultural sectors increased significantly, labor supply of agricultural families reduced, and labor demand in agricultural production decreased. The shortage of agricultural labor force, for grain production, is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it is easy to cause the land extensive management, the multiple cropping index decline and farmland abandoned. On the other hand, it induces capital inputs to substitute labor and new type of operation to replace old type of operation, which is an opportunity to accelerate the transformation of the mode of agricultural development. The econometric results based on the overall and sub regions of grain production show that the shortage of agricultural labor force has no significant negative impact on grain production.