台风环境下海上结构的设计风浪联合概率模型

A Joint Probabilistic Model of Design Wave and Wind Parameters for Offshore Structures under Typhoon Circumstances

为了研究作用于海上结构的主要极端作用,以短期测波资料为基础,将对海浪形成发展有重要影响的风速与波高、周期有机结合起来,推导出给定风速条件下的波高、周期联合概率分布模型,对波高、风速相关系数进行参数分析。将给定风速条件下N年最大波高作为滤过复合Poisson过程考虑,推导了其超值累积分布,进而反推台风时相应重现期下的年最大波高众值及相应特征周期,得出了基于台风环境的设计波浪要素。结果表明:推导模型从概率学角度建立了风、浪设计因素的对应关系,简化了传统设计参数的计算。

In order to study the main extreme actions on offshore structures,based on the data of some short term wave observation,combining wave height and wave period with wind speed,which has an important influence on the formation and development of ocean wave,the joint probabilistic model of wave height and wave period under the given wind velocity condition is derived,and the parameter analysis is performed on the correlated coefficients of wave height and wind speed. Regarding the maximal wave height during N years under the given wind velocity condition as a filtered composite Poisson process,its cumulative distribution is derived,from which the mode of annual maximal wave height and the corresponding characteristic period in typhoon circumstance for a given return period are inverted to obtain the design characteristic wave height and period in typhoon circumstance. The result shows that the corresponding relationship between the wind and wave design factors is established by the derived model from the aspect of probability,which simplified the calculation of traditional design parameters.