房价波动、货币政策与银行信贷

House Price Fluctuations,Monetary Policy and Bank Credit

基于2005-2014年的季度数据,借助VAR模型对变量进行协整检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解,以探究货币政策对房价和银行信贷的影响以及房价波动与银行信贷之间的相互作用关系。结果表明:短期内货币政策对房价波动和银行信贷都有显著的正向影响;从长期来看,房价波动与银行信贷之间的正向影响程度更加显著,而货币政策对房价有明显的负面影响。基于此,我国可以谨慎调控货币政策、合理引导房地产市场发展、提升银行防范风险能力、加强金融创新,以维护商业银行信贷资产安全。

Based on the data from 2005-2014,the paper analyzed theoretically the interaction of real estate price,bank credit and monetary policy by VAR model and through Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to reveal the influence of monetary policy on real estate and band credit and the relationship between real estate price and band credit.The results show that monetary policy has much impact on real estate price and bank credit,and from a long-term point of view,the interaction between real estate price and band credit is more evident.Due to time-lag,the interaction is not obvious in the first period,and the later period the more obvious.Based on these,our country may regulate monetary policy more cautiously,promote the ability of banks to avoid risks,increase financial innovation and guide the way of real estate market legitimately to secure the safety of credit assets in commercial bank.