厂商雇佣规模的影响因素及其政策含义——基于一个微观视角雇佣模型的理论分析与实证检验

The Influence Factors on Firm's Hiring Decision and Its Policy Implications——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test Base on a Hiring Model from a Microcosmic View

从雇佣与解雇成本出发,建立一个基于微观视角的雇佣模型,运用动态最优理论给出影响厂商雇佣决策的影响因素并对其进行实证检验。分析结果表明:真实利率水平和真实工资水平的降低会显著提高雇佣规模,而资本存量的增加对就业的促进作用需要在一定条件下才能实现。根据相图分析,给出政府管理层实现就业目标以及厂商实现最优雇佣规模的政策建议。

A hiring model considering the cost occurred in the process of hiring and firing is established from a microcosmic perspective, and then the influence factors on firm＇ s hiring and firing decision is obtained by using the method of dynamic optimization theory. The theoretical analysis and empirical test report that the decreasing of real interest rate and real wage can expand employment, but the Promoting effect of capital stock increasement on Employment can be realized only in special condition. Finally, the suggestion on achieving employment goals for government management and optimal employment size for firms are given by the phase diagram analysis.