金融发展对国际贸易结构影响的实证分析

THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL LEVEL AND TRADE STRUCTURE

本文利用外部金融依赖度、有形资产率两个与金融市场相关的指标对金融发展水平与贸易结构的关系进行了实证分析。通过把贸易行业SITC 4位分类数据转换成工业行业ISIC 3位分类数据后,利用多国行业面板数据,对出口贸易结构进行了回归。6个金融发展水平指标的回归系数都表明,金融发展会促进外部金融依赖度高的行业出口和形成比较优势,但是金融发展不利于有形资产率高的行业出口并且会降低其比较优势。对行业净贸易额和净出口比较优势表示的贸易结构进行稳健性检验,结果进一步证明了金融发展是影响贸易结构和比较优势的一个重要原因。

This paper applies the two financial characteristics： external finance dependence and asset tangibility to analyze the influence of financial level on the international trade structure. This paper con- verts the trade flow data at the 4 - digit SITC Rev. 2 industries level to the data covering 3 - digit ISIC sec- tors. With the industry level panel data, this paper finds that industries with higher external financial de- pendence have higher export shares and relative advantage at a higher level of financial development, but it＇s negative for higher asset tangibility industries. Using the net trade and net relative advantage data, this paper provides the robust conclusion that the financial development is the important source of relative advantage.