生态福利绩效视角下的上海市可持续发展评价研究

EVALUATION ON SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF ECOLOGICAL WELLBEING PERFORMANCE——A CASE STUDY OF SHANGHAI

资源与环境约束加剧的大背景下,在“生态门槛”内实现社会福利最大化的可持续发展模式是未来城市发展的必然选择。从生态福利绩效视角出发,选取人均生态足迹和人类发展指数构建城市可持续发展评价指标体系,并采用DEA方法计算二者的投入产出效率,对上海市1999-2012年可持续发展水平进行多维度、动态化的实证分析。研究发现：1上海市人类发展指数、人均生态足迹与经济发展同步增长,但人均生态足迹水平大于生态承载能力,处于严重“生态赤字”状态,并不断恶化;2上海市多数年份的生态福利绩效处于DEA无效状态,且2005年以来进入规模收益递减通道。最后提出政策建议。

Under the condition of limited resources and environment protection, there is an urgent need to conduct sustainable urban development to maximize so6ietal wellbe!ng within the ＂Ecological Threshold＂. This research is conducted by appraising the efficiency of sustainable development in Shanghai from the year of 1999 to 2012, from the perspective of ecological wellbeing performance based on the DEA models. In this research, the input index is the ecological footprint per capita, and HDI is the output index. The results demonstrate that a higher level of economic growth along with a higher cost of environment and performance in most years are DEA inefficient except for the year of 2004. Last, some constructive suggestions will be proposed for Shanghai＇s sustainable development in the next coming years.