人民币汇率波动与货币政策调控难度

RMB Exchange Rates Fluctuations and the Difficulty in Monetary Policy Regulation

文章采用动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型研究了中国货币政策实施时不能忽略的人民币汇率波动特征。文章构建了人民币汇率波动与中国货币政策及其宏观经济系统影响机制的理论模型,并在模型参数校准的基础上进行了政策模拟。研究结果表明,较大的人民币汇率波动会在一定程度上减弱中国货币政策的调控效果,但是对每个变量冲击响应的影响程度有所不同。较大的人民币汇率波动将显著干扰货币政策对宏观经济需求的调控,人民币汇率升值波动幅度较大时,货币政策对需求变量的调控作用会减弱,但不会影响相关需求变量在不同时点的冲击响应走势特征。较大的汇率波动会减弱利率上行对出口的负面影响,有利于缓解货币政策对出口的负面冲击,但会导致贸易条件(出口价格和进口价格的比值)进一步恶化。

This paper studies the monetary policy effects by considering the influence of RMB exchange rates fluctuations based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. It constructs a theoretical model of RMB exchange rates fluctuations, China＇s monetary policy and their effects on macroeconomic system, and makes a policy simulation based on the calibration of model parameters. It indicates that a greater volatility of RMB exchange rates weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation to a certain extent, but has somewhat different effects on responses of every variable to shocks. A greater volatility of RMB exchange rates significantly interferes in the control of monetary policy on macroeconomic demand; when RMB inflation fluctuates by a big margin, the control role of monetary policy in demand variables weakens, but the trend of responses of relevant demand variables to shocks does not be affected at different time. Bigger margin of RMB exchange rates fluctuations eases up the negative effect of the rise in interest rates on the export, and is conducive to the relief of negative shocks of monetary policy to the export, but results in further deterioration of terms of trade （the ratio of export prices to import prices）.