中国城镇化与资源环境耦合关系实证研究

Empirical Research of Coupling Mechanism between Urbanization and Resources and the Environment in China

基于1990-2012年城镇化与资源环境相关数据，构建了包括人口城镇化、经济城镇化、空间城镇化与社会城镇化在内的城镇化指数，以及包括能源资源消耗、污染物排放和生态空间占用在内的资源环境指数。利用VAR模型来定量研究城镇化指数与资源环境指数之间的动态关系。脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析结果表明，城镇化与资源环境系统存在耦合关系。一方面城镇化的发展对资源环境系统产生胁迫效应，同时随着资源环境问题的加重，资源环境系统也会对城镇化的规模、速度、效率等提出约束要求，但是约束效应要小于胁迫效应。

Based on the data of urbanization and resources environment from 1990 to 2012 in China, this paper constructed urbanization index including population urbanization, economic urbanization, space urbanization and social urbanization, and resource environment index including energy and resource consumption, pollutant emission and ecological footprint. We analyzed the dynamic relationship between those two indexes quantitatively with VAR model. The result of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis is that there is a coupling relationship between urbanization and resource environment. This means that the development of urbanization has stress effect on resource environment system. Meanwhile, resource environment system may limit the urbanization scale, speed and efficiency, but the effect is less than that restriction.