江苏省经济与环境协调发展实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of Economic and Environmental Development in Jiangsu Province

基于2001-2012年江苏省与全国的时间序列数据建立计量经济模型，研究发现在2011年后江苏省与全国的环境污染状况呈“N”型而不是典型的倒“U”型。进一步选取有关指标建立协调度评价模型，对2001-2012年江苏省经济与环境协调发展情况进行分析，结果是2001-2010年经济发展与环境系统协调度逐年增加，并在2010年首次呈现中级协调状况，但协调度在2011年又有所下降，2012年有所好转但仍1日较低。根据分析结果，提出江苏省应在加大环境保护力度的同时加快产业结构转型的政策建议。

An econometric model is established based on the data of Jiangsu Province and China from 2001 to 2012, the study found the environmental pollution situation appeared ＂N＂ type instead of the typical inverted ＂U＂ in Jiangsu Province and China after 2011. The study further selects relevant indicators to establish coordination degree evaluation model to analyze the coordinated development situation of economy and environment in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2012, the results show that the coordination degree of the economic development and environmental system increases every year from 2001 to 2010, and intermediate coordination situation was presented in 2010 for the first time, but the degree of coordination declined in 2011 and then improved but still low in 2012. According to the results, suggestions about intensive environmental protection and industrial restructuring in Jiangsu Province are put forward.