中国农业能源消耗与CO_2排放:趋势及减排路径——基于Holt-Winter无季节性模型和“十三五”的预测

China's Agricultural Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions: Current Situation, Trend and Path to Reduce Emissions

利用能源CO2排放系数和1985-2012年农业能源消费数据，分析了我国农业能源消耗及碳排放状况，然后使用Holt—Winter无季节性模型对我国“十三五”农业能源消耗、CO2排放趋势进行预测，并探讨农业减排路径，得到以下结论：1985-2012年，我国农业能源消费量波动中持续增长，CO2排放系数高的能源在农业耗能中所占的比例有所提高。CO2排放量总体保持上升趋势，单位农业产值CO2排放强度逐年下降，但未能实现碳绝对减排。“十三五”期间，我国农业能源利用效率逐步提升，单位农业产值CO2排放强度继续下降。但能源消费量、CO2排放量仍会持续上升，农业仍不能实现但趋向于碳绝对减排。为实现我国农业节能减排，应发挥农业碳汇功能，优化能源结构，提高农业能源利用效率。

Using CO2 emission co-efficiency of energy and agricultural energy consumption data from 1985 to 2012, the agricultural energy consumption and carbon emissions are analyzed. Then using the Holt-Winter non-seasonal model, the trend of China＇s ＂thirty five-year＂ agricultural energy consumption and CO2 emissions are forecasted. At last, the path to reduce agricultural emissions is explored. The following conclusions are got： during 1985 to 2012, China agriculture standard coal consumption sustained growth with fluctuation, the proportion of high CO2 emission coefficient energy in agriculture energy consumption increased. Overall agricultural CO2 emissions keep rising, the CO2 emissions intensity decline year by year, but it failed to achieve absolute carbon emissions. During the period of ＂thirty five-year＂, our country agriculture energy efficiency gradually increased, agricultural output value of CO2 emissions intensity continues to fall. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions are still rising, agriculture still cannot achieve but tend to absolutely reduction of carbon emissions. To achieve the energy saving and emission reduction of agriculture, the agricultural carbon sinks function should be put to good use, the agricultural energy structure should be optimized, and the energy efficiency of agriculture should be improved.