中国大规模粮食进口的现状与未来

The Present and Future Picture of Large Scale Grain Import in China

中国加入世界贸易组织前后,学术界有诸多研究指出中国会进口大量玉米,但是事实上中国大量进口的农产品却是大豆。近些年,诸多研究再次纷纷指出中国未来会进口大量玉米。显然,科学分析玉米进口对判断未来农产品进口形势具有非常重要的意义。本研究通过计算大陆目前肉、植物油的人均消费量,通过与发达经济体作对比,试图匡算植物油和肉类消费缺口。研究发现,和发达经济体相比,中国的植物油和肉类均存在消费缺口,然而中国未来需要大量进口的仍是大豆而非玉米,大规模进口大豆既能满足植物油需求,还能为国内畜牧业提供丰富的饲料,而基于目前超过1亿多吨玉米库存,2020年之前不可能出现大规模进口玉米的情况。即使不考虑玉米产量提高,到2030年饲料粮缺口不会超过1800万吨。1800万吨玉米对于国际市场而言占比仅20%左右,而且2014年已经进口了超过2000万吨玉米及相关替代品。

Many researchers drew a conclusion that China would import a large quantity of corns with China＇s entry into the WTO. However, in reality it is soybeans that China massively imports in past 20 years. In recent years, more and more research results predict China will import plenty of corns in future. Obviously, it＇ s of great significant to scientifically analyze the future agricultural imports situation. In this study, according to the calculation of per capita consumption of current meat and vegetable oil and comparison to the ones from advanced economies, we try to roughly estimate the consumption gap of meat and vegetable oil consumption. The results demonstrate, compared with developed economies, there are both gaps existed in meat and vegetable oil consumption. However, China will still need the large- scale import of soybeans in future instead of com. Large-scale imports of soybean can satisfy the need of vegetable oil, and provide rich feed for domestic livestock industry as well. Based on over 1 billion tons of corn stock, there is little chance of large-scale corn import till 2020. Even without corn production increase in the future, the feedgrain gap is no more than 1800 million tons, which is only 20% proportion in international market. In addition, China has imported over 2000 million corns and related substitutes in 2014.