个体视角下的网络舆情传递链路预测分析

Link Prediction Analysis of Internet Public Opinion Transfer from the Individual Perspective

【目的】通过网络舆情传播中网民个体的"从众效应"和"阈值效应"的传递特点分析,对舆情传递的链路结构进行预测。【方法】采集真实网络舆情传递在线数据,利用舆情传递个体的节点属性及舆情传递网络结构的已知信息,使用链路预测方法,分别针对网络舆情无标度(BA)网络模拟数据和真实舆情传递网络数据,预测已有节点间即将产生的舆情传递连接。【结果】通过网络数据仿真和BBS真实数据链路预测分析发现,在众多的链路预测相似性指标中,局部路径指标(LP)算法得出的链路预测结论正确率最高,说明LP算法适合此类舆情传递网络的链路预测分析。【局限】仅限于对已有链路预测相似性指标的应用,没有对传统链路预测相似性指标进行相应的改进。【结论】从数据角度提供一个有效的预测舆情发展趋势的分析方法,以期为网络舆情控制提供相关理论支持。

[Objective] This paper establishes the BA network model of public opinion transfer process, regarding ＂Bandwagon Effect＂ and ＂Threshold Effect＂ as a starting point and according to the special inspection of public opinion [Methods] At the same time, collect the real online data of public opinion transfer network. This paper uses the link prediction method to predict the unknown links of public opinion nodes which will appear in the forthcoming transfer process of both simulation BA network data and real public opinion data. [Resualts] The analysis results show that among many similarity indices algorithms LP link prediction algorithm can get the best prediction. It means that LP link prediction algorithm is suitable for the link prediction in such public opinion delivery network. [Limitations] There is no improvement of link predict similarity index. [Conclutions] From the point of data view, this paper proposes an effective prediction method of public opinion trends analysis to provide the theoretical support for the network of public opinion control.