多维人口结构变动的交互经济影响——基于老龄化、城镇化和市民化视角的考察

The Interactive Economic Effect of Multidimensional Population Structure Changes:Based on the Perspectives of Aging,Urbanization,and Citizenization

人口年龄结构老龄化、城乡结构城镇化与户籍结构市民化是中国人口结构变动的三大趋势特征,并将对中国经济增长产生多重冲击与交互影响。考察人口多个维度结构变动对经济的综合影响,对更好地把握人口老龄化背景下的人口经济关系具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据对这种交互影响进行了考察。结果表明,人口老龄化、城镇化和市民化趋势会对经济增长分别产生负面、正向以及U型影响。从交互影响看,随着人口城镇化与市民化进程的推进,将有效缓解人口老龄化对经济增长带来的负面影响,而老龄化程度的加剧会弱化城镇化与市民化对经济增长的正向影响,市民化则有助于改善城镇化对经济增长的正面影响。这表明在人口老龄化过程中,尽早以市民化助推城镇化是实现经济较快增长的有效途径。

Aging, urbanization,and citizenizationare the three major trends of China＇s population structure changes, and will have multiple and interactive effects on China＇s economic growth. It is important to study the comprehensive influence of population structure changes on the economy. This paper examines the interactive impact based on 2001-2012 China＇s provincial panel data. The results show that the population aging, urbanization, and citizenization will have a negative, positive, and U - shaped impact on economic growth. Urbanization and citizenization can alleviate the aging negative economic impact, and aging population will weaken the positive economic impact of the urbanization and the citizenizationare, and the eitizenization helps to improve urbanization positive effects on economic growth. This shows that as soon as possible to promote the urbanization and citizenizatiohis an effective way to achieve rapid economic growth in the process of aging.