海洋平台作业人因可靠性与失误研究

Study on human reliability and error in offshore platform operation

为提高定量预测的准确性,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM),建立海洋平台作业人因可靠性定量分析方法。针对海洋平台作业的情景环境,系统地划分CREAM中的诸共同绩效条件(CPC)的类别。用模糊推理的方法,实现对CPC的模糊化评价。用多元线性回归拟合方法,建立控制模式与CPC的对应关系模型,以增强CREAM的通用性,基于模糊量化规则,获得控制模式的隶属度。通过去模糊化实现人因失误概率(HEP)的定量计算。用所建方法,分析墨西哥湾深水地平线井喷事故案例。结果表明,该事故HEP为3.54×10-2,对应的控制模式为战术型/机会型,验证了该方法的可行性。

To increase accuracy of quantitative prediction of human reliability,CREAM was used for developing a quantitative method for analyzing human reliability in offshore platforms operation. According to the characteristics of offshore operation environment,common performance condition（ CPC） of CREAM was classified systematically. And the fuzzy reasoning method was implemented to evaluate the performance of the CPC. Generality of CREAM was improved by building a relation model between CPC score and control modes by multiple linear regression. Based on fuzzy quantitative rules,membership degrees of control models were got. Then the human error probability（ HEP） was obtained by defuzzification. Finally,an example of the application of this method was given. The results show that the quantitative analysis method is practical.