军事飞行作业风险管理的综合集成模型

Meta-synthesis model of risk management for military flight operation

为实现军事飞行作业风险管理定性分析与定量分析有效结合,用综合集成方法建立军事飞行作业风险管理模型,剖析军事飞行作业风险特点及风险管理过程;将"蝴蝶结"分析法、简化的风险评价矩阵和"上限为三"法则相结合,继而解决风险分析、风险评价和风险应对等问题。结果表明,该模型能够克服现有方法对客观数据要求过高的问题,从而为深化微观层面的军事飞行作业风险管理工作提供理论和实践依据。

To solve the problem of combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis for military flight operation risk management,a model was built based on meta-synthesis method. Firstly,the steps and characteristics of military flight risk management were discussed. Secondly,the method of bow tie analysis,the simplified matrix of risk evaluation and the rule of three were applied to risk analysis,risk evaluation and risk decision. Finally,experimental results show that the model can avoid the problem of relying heavily on a large number of data in existing methods,and can provide a sound basis for modifying military flight operation risk management practice.