突发事件中不实信息传播的传染病模型研究

Research on false information transmission in emergency based on epidemic model

为探究突发事件发生后不实信息的传播过程,分析其传播机理和控制方法。鉴于不实信息的传播、澄清、隔离和控制过程与传染病传播及其通过疫苗、治疗和隔离等控制过程相似,将经典的易感染者和已感染者(SI)传染病模型,优化转换成突发事件发生后不实信息传播控制的模型。综合运用控制论的相关知识,在现实操作中找出不实信息在不同人群间的接触转化率等影响传播的关键因素。结果表明,应急管理决策者可以根据实际情况,建立动态决策模型,并调整人群的接触转化率等相关参数,达到有效控制不实信息传播的目的。

The paper was aimed at studying the transmission process and mechanism,and related control method of false information in emergency. In view of similarity between the diffusing process of false information and the transmission of infectious disease,a transmission controlling model of false information was built on the basis of the classical SI epidemic model. Practical methods were worked out for managing false information by well controlling critical parameters such as the contact and conversion rates of false information among different groups of people. The results show that decision makers of emergency management can effectively control the false information transmission by means of building a dynamic decision making model according to the reality and modifying related key parameters including the conversion rates.