经济增长、FDI与环境污染的时空传导效应研究——基于半参数空间面板VAR模型的分析

Research on the Mutual Effects among Economic Growth,FDI and Environmental Pollution in Temporal-Spatial Dimension——Based on the Semi-parametric Panel Space Vector Autoregression Model

从理论上总结出经济增长、FDI及环境污染两两交互影响的研究体系,通过构建半参数空间面板VAR模型及时空脉冲响应函数分析了三者之间的冲击在时空上的传导过程。研究发现:经济大省如北京的经济增长发生冲击会对周边地区的经济增长与环境污染产生微弱但持久的正效应,同时对FDI也存在正向影响;FDI大省如江苏的FDI增长在3期内会拖累自身经济增长,长期则表现出对经济持久的拉动作用,但同时也会增大周边及自身环境污染;河北的环境污染分别在4期与3期内对经济增长与FDI有促进作用,但长期内则会抑制经济与FDI的增长。此外,还结合模型半参数部分探讨了在财政分权制度下,经济增长、FDI与环境污染的协同发展机制。

This paper summarizes the system of the mutual effects among economic growth,FDI and environmental pollution theoretically,and empirically tests the effects and builds up the semi-parametric panel space vector autoregression model and impulse response function. Estimation results show that,positive impact has taken place in developed province,such as Beijing,would give the economic growth and pollution of arounding regions positive effects,which are week but long lasting; FDI rising in Jiangsu would drag on its economic growth in 3 periods,but boost it in the long-term. And it would aggravate the environmental pollution in both local and surrounding at the same time. Pollution in Hebei contributes to the improvement of economic growth and FDI in 4 and 3 periods,but slows them in long terms. Besides,combining with the semiparametric of this model,it discusses the collaborative development mechanism of economic growth,FDI and environmental pollution under the fiscal decentralization system.