中国市场化进程与经济增长:基于贝叶斯模型平均方法的实证分析

Marketization and Economic Growth in China:Based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

以市场化为导向的经济体制改革促进了中国经济增长,但如何在众多影响因素中识别和分解出市场化进程对经济增长的促进作用依然是一个有待深入研究的话题。本文基于贝叶斯模型平均方法定量考察了市场化进程及子项对全国及东中西部地区经济增长的贡献。研究结果显示,在1997-2009年间市场化进程指数的后验包含概率和后验均值分别为19.7%和0.0072,这表明虽然中国的市场化改革有效地促进了经济增长,但并不是最为关键的因素。在市场化进程指数五个子项对各地区经济增长的影响中,政府与市场关系以及非国有经济发展对中国经济增长具有正向推动作用,但在改革过程中仍需要承受产品市场、要素市场、中介组织和法律制度环境改善所带来的阵痛。

The China＇s economic growth has been promoted by its market-oriented reform,but how to identify the contribution of marketization to the economic growth within so many factors is still a worth topic to be studied. This paper studies the effect of the China＇s marketization on its economic growth in a model based on the Bayesian Model Averaging method,and it also studies the impact of the five sub-market indexes on the economic growth of different regions. This paper finds the posterior inclusion probability of China ＇s marketization is 19. 7%,and the value of posterior mean is 0.0072.The result indicates that the China＇s marketization has a positive effect on economic growth during 1997-2009,but is not the most critical factor. At the same time,the development of non- state- owned economy and the relationship between government and market have a positive effect on promoting China＇s economic growth. But the China＇s economic growth has to suffer the pain from the development of the other sub-market indexes.