基于气候适宜度的一季稻产量预报模式研制——以安徽省桐城市为例

Study on the Forecasting Model of Single-season Rice Yield Based on Climatic Suitability——Taking Tongcheng of Anhui Province as An Example

[目的]针对不同发育期时段建立一季稻产量趋势及定量预报方程。[方法]依据1981～2010年桐城市一季稻实产数据及全生育期对应时段的基本气象资料,利用直线滑动均值和调和权重法分离处理气象产量,引入气候适宜度模式,采用相关系数分析分时段筛选出桐城一季稻产量的气象影响因子,结合逐步回归方法建立预报方程。[结果]通过试报及检验,得出90%的年份相对误差值为-3%～3%,只有3个年份相对误差绝对值〉3%,2011、2012年试报的相对误差分别为-1.1%、3.7%。[结论]首次将气候适宜度作为气象影响因子引入预报模式,使得预报结果更加精确,效果令人满意,完全满足业务化要求,可以业务使用,尤其可针对不同发育期时段适时开展为农服务工作,意义较大。

[Objective] The research aimed to establish the single-season rice production trends and quantitative prediction equations for the different developmental stages. [Method]According to single-season rice yield and the meteorological data of the corresponding period of the whole growth period in Tongcheng from 1981 to 2010,the meteorological output was separated by using linear sliding mean and harmonic weight. The introduction of climate suitability model,single-season rice yield meteorological factor was screened in different time periods by correlation analysis,the prediction equations was established by stepwise regression method. [Result]Through trial and test report,the relative error of 90% years was- 3% to 3%,only 3 years was 〉3%. And the relative errors of the 2011 and 2012 years was- 1. 1%,3. 7% respectively.[Conclusion]For the first time,the climate suitability was introduced into the forecast model,which made the forecasting results more precise and satisfactory. It can meet the requirements of the business and can be used in the business.