地理距离影响证券分析师预测行为吗?

Can Geographical Distance Affect the Behaviors of Financial Analysts?

笔者考察了券商机构距离上市公司注册地的远近对证券分析师行为的影响。地理距离的远近决定了分析师获取私有信息的难易程度和成本,从而对他们的行为产生影响。笔者的研究发现:地理距离越远,证券分析师更新盈余预测的频率越低,预测准确度越低;当市场化程度较高时,地理距离对证券分析师的负向影响减弱。这说明,私有信息是影响分析师预测行为的重要信息来源,当距离远时,分析师获取私有信息的难度加大,不利于他们做出有效预测,而市场化程度较高时,公开信息可靠性的增强减弱了地理距离对分析师行为的负面影响。本研究对于我国资本市场参与者、监管层、学术界理解地理位置与证券分析师行为的关系具有重要的参考价值。

This paper studies the effect of distance between headquarter of brokers and listed firms on behaviors of financial analysts. The length of distance determines difficulties and costs that analysts gather private information,so far as affects their behaviors. The empirical evidences show that the farther the geographical distance,the lower frequency the analysts updated their earnings forecasts and the higher forecasts errors. And in higher marketization area,the negative relationship between distance and forecast frequency and forecast accuracy will be weakened. These findings imply that the long distance makes it more difficult for analysts to gain private information,which prevents them from making efficient forecasts. The higher marketization index,however,can increase reliability of public information and relief the negative effects of distance on behaviors of financial analysts. This study can provide important reference for China＇s market participants,regulators and academics to comprehend the relationship between the geographical distance and the behaviors of financial analysts.