日本变局与中日关系的走向

Transformation of Japan and Orientations of Sino-Japanese Relationship

中日两国既高度相互依赖,又在诸多领域竞争加深,是世界上最为复杂的双边关系。日本对华战略以国内政治重塑为基础,以日美同盟强化为支撑,以对华围堵为侧翼。当前,中日关系在政治、安全、经济等领域逐渐出现和缓迹象,防止中日恶性冲突的底线开始铸就,但中日和解之路依旧漫远难期。可以说,中日战略性碰撞和角力的时代刚刚开始,双边关系尚未完全定型,正在经历一个历史性重构的漫长过程。另一方面,两国管控危机并进而淡化敌对,维系和平共处并逐步实现和解,存在较大的塑造空间。有鉴于此,作者建议:第一,全面强大自己,中国持续和平发展是应对日本变局、发展中日关系的基础。第二,加强战略管理意识,尽快建立和完善中日双边危机管理机制。第三,深入研究日本,给予日本全面而辩证性的评价,促使两国正常化力量的增长。第四,积极发展中日经济合作,择机推动非传统安全领域合作。第五,开展更有效的对日公共外交,为中日关系稳定和发展打下较为坚实的社会和物质基础。

Sino-Japanese relationship is the most complex bilateral relations in the world,with high interdependences and severe competition coexisting in various areas.Japan's strategy towards China is based on its national political reshaping,underpinned by the consolidation of U.S.-Japanese Alliance and supplemented by the containment of China.What will be the future of the Sino-Japanese relationship? By analyzing the present national situation of Japan and the bilateral relations between China and Japan,the author finds that the two countries now try to draw the bottom lines to avoid pernicious especially military conflicts,but the strategic collisions between the countries are just at the beginning stage and reconciliation is still a long way to go through.On the other hand,it is still possible for the two countries to manage crisis and maintain peaceful coexistence.The author suggests that China should:(1) focus on its own sustainable development,which should be regarded as the foundation for stabilizing the bilateral relations;(2) try to set up bilateral crisis management mechanisms between China and Japan;(3) treat Japan problem in a dialectical way;(4) focus on the bilateral economic cooperation,and push forward bilateral non-traditional security cooperation under appropriate circumstances;(5) push forward more fruitful public diplomacy toward Japan.