区域产业投资的直接效应、溢出效应和反馈效应

Direct Effects,Spillover Effects and Feedback Effects of Regional Industry Investment

利用区域间投入产出关系推导各区域产业投资与GDP和产业产出的动态关联,从中分离出区域产业投资的直接、溢出和反馈效应,并测度八大区域三次产业投资的作用。研究表明:产业投资对GDP和产业产出的作用呈现动态化特征和区域差异。一次投资的边际贡献随时间推移减小;对于绝大多数区域,第一产业投资的作用由反馈效应贡献,而在二、三产业投资的直接和反馈效应作用下第二产业份额提升幅度最大;西南等区域经济发展必须摆脱需求的外部依赖性。

By using the Inter-regional input-output relations, this paper deduces the dynamic relationships between industrial investment and GDP and industrial output, and then pulls out direct effects, spillover effects and feedback effects from the relationships, finally measures the roles of three industries investment of eight regions. The role of industrial investment played in regional GDP and industrial output presents dynamic characteristics and regional differences. Marginal contribution of an investment to GDP and industrial outputs decreases over time. For most regions, roles of the first industrial investment are contributed by the feedback effects, but in the role of direct effects and feedback effects of secondary and tertiary industrial investment, the output share of secondary industry gains sharpest. To realize economic development, areas such as southwest must get rid of the external dependence of requirements.