开放型经济下财政政策效应的实证研究

The Effects of Fiscal Policy under Open Economy

本文构建具有一个主导单元的GVAR模型，并采用1995-2014年33个国家的数据考察了国内外财政政策对我国宏观经济的影响及其跨国溢出效应。实证结果表明：第一，国内财政扩张会促使实际产出增加，而使贸易平衡恶化、实际汇率贬值，并对其贸易伙伴国产生不同的动态影响；第二，国外财政支出的增加对中国产出具有显著的正向溢出，但各国溢出效应的强度和持续时间不尽相同，而国外财政收入对中国的溢出效应较小；第三，随着贸易开放程度的提高，本国财政政策乘数效应逐渐减小，国外财政扩张的溢出效应逐渐增大。

We investigate both domestic and spillover effects of fiscal policy on China＇s economy and other economies by employing the data from 33 countries over the period from 1995 to 2014 and by utilizing the GVAR model featuring a dominant unit. The results show that the domestic expansionary fiscal policy shock rises the real output, worsens the trade balance and depreciates the real exchange rate in China. It also induces different dynamic responses from China＇s trading partners. In addition, .the foreign expansionary fiscal policy shock has the positive spillover effects on China＇s economy although the strength and persist- ence of the spillover effects vary with economies. The shock from foreign government revenue has the smaller spillover effects. Finally, with the increasing of trade openness, the multiplier effect of domestic fiscal decreases while the spillover effect increases.