提税顺价政策对中国烟草产业的影响

On the impact of tax-induced price hike on China's tobacco industry

2015年5月,我国再次通过提高卷烟税收和价格推进烟草控制工作。本文通过建立计量经济模型,分析了本次提税顺价政策对中国卷烟销量、效益、结构调整、烟叶生产、重点品牌竞争态势和吸烟率的影响。认为提税顺价将使得卷烟销售均价加速上移,卷烟销量将有所下降,商业税利增速高于工业增速,重点品牌分化明显,烟叶生产继续承压。建议:1)适当加大四、五类卷烟市场供应;2)抓住机遇提高烟草产业在烟叶种植、卷烟产能、市场营销、资本运营、库存物资、科技研发等方面的管控与治理能力;3)强化重点品牌市场监控,降低政策冲击。

Starting from May 10 2015, the government of China raised the consumption tax on cigarettes. This paper analyzed the impact ot tax-induced price changes on cigarette consumption, profits, structural changes, leaf tobacco, manufacturing cigarette brands competition and smoking prevalence in China. Results showed that average sales price would rise quickly, sales volume would go down, tax and profits increase rate in tobacco commercial companies exceeded that of industrial enterprises, performance of cigarette brands would be further polarized and leaf tobacco manufacturing would still be under pressure. It was suggested that （1） Tier 4 and 5 cigarettes should increase supply on a proper scale. （2） Management and control capacity should be enhanced on leaf tobacco planting, cigarette production, marketing, capital management, inventory and R ＆ D. （3） Close monitoring over key cigarette brands should be strengthened in order to cushion the impact of tax-induced price hike.