基于风险的济南市水生态安全评价

Risk-based safety assessment of water ecology in Jinan City

为更准确全面地评价区域水生态安全,在传统的水生态安全评价方法的基础上引入了风险因素,探讨了基于风险的水生态安全的含义、特点和内容。以济南市为例,基于层次分析法,从风险、状态和响应3个方面建立了区域水生态安全评价指标体系,并结合综合指数法与模糊综合评判法的评价结果,最终给出各区域的安全状态。结果表明,济南市安全度居中,改变区域生态现状并采取有效措施控制其演变趋势,对区域水生态安全有重要意义,所提出的基于风险的水生态安全评价方法切实可行,可为其他区域水生态安全研究提供科学依据。

To evaluate the water ecological safety at the regional scale, risk factors are introduced to improve the traditional evaluation method. The concept, characteristics and content of water security is also discussed. Jinan city was taken as the study case. Security evaluation index system of regional water ecological was established based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process from the aspects of risk, state and response. By coupling the evaluation results of quantitative comprehensive index method and qualitative fuzzy comprehensive method, the safety of each region were analyzed. The results showed that Jinan City faced medium security condition, and measures are suggested to control evolution trend and improve water ecological status. In sum, the new method is feasible and can provide a scientific basis for the safety evaluation of the regional wal^r o,-,~l,,~.T