晚期先发制人、反事实与结构方程架构

Late Preemption,Counterfactual and the Structural Equations Framework

晚期先发制人问题对刘易斯的素朴的因果关系的反事实理论构成了致命的威胁。正是有鉴于此,因果关系的结构方程架构理论试图通过解决晚期先发制人问题来挽救因果关系的反事实理论。但是,这种努力也由于种种原因而失败了。笔者认为只有求助于因果多元主义才能解决晚期先发制人问题,才能丰富和发展因果关系理论。

Late preemption problems pose a deadly threat to Lewis＇ s naive counterfactual theories of causation. Therefore, the structural equations framework theories of causation try to save counterfactual theories of causation by solving late preemption problem. For many reasons, this effort also failed, though. Researches show that only by causal pluralism can late preemption problem be solved, and can the theory of causation be enriched and devel- oped.