从近四届省运会游泳比赛看浙江竞技游泳后备人才整体实力

Overall competitive strength of Zhejiang swimming talents from the late 4th Zhejiang Provincial Games

采用资料调研、数理统计和逻辑分析等方法对浙江省近四届省运会（2002-2014年）游泳比赛的成绩和奖牌分布进行分析,以了解浙江省竞技游泳后备人才的整体实力。结果显示：1）浙江近四届省运会游泳比赛年龄组设置和竞赛项目不断调整,金牌数逐届上升,成绩水平逐届提高;2）浙江省内游泳水平的整体格局表现为：第一梯队优势明显,顶尖后备人才辈出（杭州、温州、宁波）;第二梯队相对稳定,后备人才储备充足（绍兴、嘉兴和台州）;第三梯队提升势头显著（金华、丽水和湖州）;衢州、舟山成绩持续低迷;3）浙江省近四届省运会游泳比赛10~12岁组成绩整体稳步提高,女子运动员的水平均高于男子运动员,男、女全能冠平均差值随年龄增加逐渐缩小;4）从第十五届浙江省运会游泳比赛的整体情况来看,整体水平达到4年省运会周期的最高点;5）从浙江省第十五届省运会游泳比赛的金牌分布来看,温州队与杭州队的差距逐渐缩小,杭州队在女子项目中占有较大优势,温州男子项目优势明显。

The methods of data research, mathematical statistics and logical analysis were used to study the swimming competition results and medal distribution of the late 4th Zhejiang Provincial Games （2002 - 2014）. The study compared Zhejiang competitive swimming talented level with the national level. The results show that： 1 ） The age group setting and contest have been adjusted during the four games, number of gold medals increased and competition achievements raised continually; 2） the overall pattern of Zhejiang swimming teams： the first echelon has obvious advantages with top reserve talent from Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo; the second tier is relatively stable with adequate reserve personnel from Shaoxing, Jiaxing and Taizilou; the third tier has strong momentum from Jinhua, Lishui and Huzhou; Quzhou and Zhoushan have poor talent pool ; 3） the performance of 10 - 12 age group as a whole increased steadily. Female athletes were better than men athletes, male and fenmle average difference narrowing with increasing age; 4） the swimming competition level in the fifth Games reached a peak in the four - year cycle. 5） From the fifth Games, there was nan＇owing gap between Hangzhou team and Wenzhou Team, the former having a larger advantage in the women events while the latter has obvious advantages in meng events.