不同分差情况下奥运会男篮比赛技术指标判别分析

Technical discriminated analysis on performance in the case of different score difference between winning and losing teams in the Olympic basketball tournament

主要通过文献资料法和数理统计法对近3届奥运会男篮比赛技术指标进行了判别分析,以探索不同实力(分差)对比下球队胜、负的关键影响因素,可为国际大赛的球队训练、比赛战术调整和人员调配提供有价值的借鉴。研究结果显示:1)最近3届奥运会117场男篮比赛根据分差大小分为3类:"实力均衡"比赛、"实力失衡"比赛和"实力悬殊"比赛。2)判别分析表明,"实力均衡"比赛胜负的有效判别指标为3项防守指标,体现了"赢球靠防守"的公理;"实力失衡"比赛胜负的有效判别指标有8项,反映了"得分靠进攻"的大致趋势;"实力悬殊"比赛胜负的有效判别指标有5项,体现了强队控制弱队的"表演看进攻"特点。3)"实力均衡"比赛胜负判别方程的判别效果要低于"实力失衡"比赛和"实力悬殊"比赛,后二者的判别精确度却差不多。

Using the methods of literature and mathematical statistics, this paper analyzed the game -related technical indexes from the last 3 Olympic basketball tournaments to explore the main factors that influence a basketball team between winning and losing teams in comparison of different strength. The resuh could provide valuable reference for preparing for international competitions, changing game tactics and allocating players. The results showed that 1 ） according to different score between winning and losing teams from 117 games, all the games can be divided into 3 groups （close games, balance games and unbalance games）. 2） The discriminate analysis exhibits that in close games the discriminate variables are 3 defensive indicators, which retlects the self - evident truth of winning depending on defense; in balance games, there are 8 discriminate variables, which reflects the tendency of scoring relying on offence. In unbalance games, there are 5 discriminate variables, which reflects the characteristics of performance depending on offence. 3 ） Discriminate effect of the equation in close games is lower than that in balance and unbalance games.