基于无偏灰色马尔科夫模型的煤矿事故死亡人数预测

Prediction of Coal Mine Deaths Based on Unbiased Grey Markov Model

寻找煤矿事故死亡人数的规律并有效的预测死亡人数,对制定有效的措施预防安全事故,减少人员伤亡具有重要意义。以2008-2013年的煤矿事故死亡人数数据为基础,利用无偏灰色马尔科夫模型预测2014年煤矿事故死亡人数,预测结果与实际数据的相对误差仅1.92%。最后利用该模型预测2015年煤矿事故死亡人数,最终预测结果为663人,这个结果符合我国煤矿近几年来的发展趋势。

To make effective measures to prevent accidents and reduce casualties, it is important for us to find out the law of the death toll in coal mining accidents and predict the number of deaths effectively. Based on the data on death number in coal mining accidents from 2008 to 2013, this paper predicts the death in 2014 by using unbiased grey Markov model. The results show that the relative error between the prediction results and the actual data is only 1.92%. Finally, the model was used to predict the coal mine deaths in 2015, and the final prediction result was 663. The result is consistent with the development trend of Chinab coal mines.