中国市场化与非市场化货币政策工具有效性比较——基于VAR模型的实证分析

A Comparative Study of Market-based and Non-market Monetary Policy Tools in China——A Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

为加深了解近年来中国金融市场化改革的成效，从而更好地引导未来的金融改革与发展，本文用不同于以往学术界“价格型与数量型”的分类方法，结合金融改革的大环境，将中国货币政策工具分为以灵活利率为代表的市场化和以信贷指导为代表的非市场化工具；根据中国2005M7～2015M2的相关数据，建立贷款基准利率、贷款总额与企业商品价格指数的双变量VAR模型，运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应对两类货币工具对实体经济的影响做分析比较，从货币政策调控的角度反映中国金融市场化进程。结果表明，基准利率等市场化货币工具虽然对经济有短期影响，但长期来看，“窗口指导”这类政府主导的非市场化手段仍然在中国经济调节中具有主要作用，说明中国金融市场化程度还不高。

Under the background of financing reformation, this paper classifies the monetary policy tools into two types, which respectively are market-based tools and non-market tools. Then separately chooses the one-year benchmark lending rate representing as a market monetary tool, the total loans representing as a non-market monetary tool and the CGPI representing as real economy in China. Finally, establishes two VAR models with these three variables to study how different monetary policy tools a ffect economic based on China＇s characteristic national situation, reflecting the process of the financial reform in China. The findings show that： although China has experienced financial reform for a dozen of years, the non-market monetary policy tools, including ＂window guidance＂, still occupy more important position in affecting economic, which means the level of financial libe ralization is still weak.