基于CA的有毒气体泄漏事故风险动态评估

CA-based dynamic risk assessment of toxic gas leakage accidents

针对有毒气体泄漏事故风险动态评估问题,基于元胞自动机(cellular automata,CA)理论,首先构建了有毒气体浓度动态预测模型,然后以动态预测模型为基础,进一步构建了有毒气体泄漏事故个人风险和社会风险动态评估模型,最后通过对氯气泄漏事故的仿真模拟验证了该模型的有效性.研究结果表明:该模型能够同时对有毒气体泄漏事故的影响范围以及影响范围内各个位置处的有毒气体浓度,个人风险,社会风险进行快速地实时地评估.通过模型计算得到的有毒气体泄漏事故个人风险和社会风险的动态评估结果可为应急疏散的开展以及应急救援资源的合理分配提供科学有效的依据.

To the issue of dynamic risk assessment of toxic gas leakage accidents, based on the cellular automata （CA） theory, dynamic prediction model of toxic gas concentration is formulated at first, and then dynamic individual risk and social risk assessment model of toxic gas leakage accidents is further constructed based on the dynamic prediction model. At last, the proposed model is verified through the simulation of one chlorine gas leakage accident. The results show that the proposed model can simultaneously predict the impact scope of the toxic gas leakage accidents and evaluate the toxic gas concentration, the individual risk the social risk at any location in the impact scope in real time efficiently, and the dynamic individual risk and social risk assessment outcomes of the toxic gas leakage accidents, which can be obtained through the proposed model in this paper, can provide scientific and effective supports for the emergency evacuation and reasonable emergency resource allocation.