中国货币政策有效性下降与预期管理研究

The Decreasing Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy and Expectation Management

中国货币政策的有效性已出现下降,表现为货币政策稳定宏观经济波动的能力明显减弱。本文通过构建一个包含预期误差冲击和预期管理的动态随机一般均衡模型,刻画了货币政策有效性下降的现状,从而研究货币政策有效性不足时预期管理应对经济波动的能力。数值模拟结果表明,预期管理通过逆周期引导市场通货膨胀预期,能够大幅减小经济波动并使经济更快收敛至稳态。同时,福利损失分析表明,在货币政策有效性不足的情况下引入预期管理,可以使得社会福利损失下降近40%。基于此,本文认为中国在货币政策有效性下降的背景下应加强对预期管理的重视。

As the effectiveness of China＇s monetary policy has decreased, it is difficult to stabilize macro-economy by using monetary policy. This paper builds up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in the presence of expectation error shocks and expectation management policy, to study the performance of expectation management in response to economic fluctuations. The model shows that expectation management policy, by leading counter-cyclical inflationary expectation to market, enables to reduce economic volatility significantly and make economy converge back to steady state faster. Welfare loss analysis implies that expectation management could cause a drop of welfare loss by nearly 40 percent in the context where monetary policy is not effective. Therefore, under current situation with declining effectiveness of monetary policy, China should pay substantial attention to expectation management.