中间品贸易自由化与制造业就业变动--来自中国加入WTO的微观证据

Input Trade Liberalization and Manufacturing Job Dynamics

本文基于2001年中国加入WTO的准自然实验,采用倍差法研究了中间品贸易自由化对中国制造业就业变动的影响效应。研究发现:(1)中间品贸易自由化通过"提高就业创造"与"降低就业破坏"两个渠道显著促进了企业的就业净增长;(2)中间品贸易自由化对不同生产率企业的就业变动具有异质性影响,它促进了高生产率企业的就业创造,但会促进低生产率企业的就业破坏,同时提高了低生产率企业退出市场的概率;(3)良好的地区制度环境有利于强化中间品贸易自由化对制造业就业集约边际变动与广延边际变动的影响;(4)就业再配置效率的改善是中间品贸易自由化促进制造业生产率增长的重要渠道。上述结论意味着,将外部贸易自由化改革与内部市场化改革双管齐下,对培育就业和实现产业转型升级至关重要。

How do trade policies affect employment？ Based on the quasi-natural experiment of China＇s accession to the WTO in 2001, this paper analyzes the impact of input trade liberalization on Chinese manufacturing firms＇ job dynamics by using the difference in difference method. The results show that： （ 1 ） Input trade liberalization has positive influence on firms＇ net growth of employment through ＂improving job creation＂ and ＂reducing job destruction＂ ; （2） The effects of input trade liberalization on firms＇ job dynamics are significantly different among firms with different productivity levels. It promotes the job creation of high productive firms, while contributes to the job destruction of low productive firms and increases the probability of exiting from the market for lowest productive firms; （3） A good institutional environment is conducive to strengthen the positive influence of input trade liberalization on manufacturing jobs dynamics with both intensive margin and extensive margin; （4）The improvement of the job realloeation efficiency is an important channel for the positive effect of input trade liberalization on the overall productivity growth of manufacturing. Our results suggest that, it is vital for government to carry out external trade liberalization reform and internal market-oriented reform simultaneously for cultivate employment and achieve industry transition and upgrading.