基于CBR与RBR的国际工程风险费用预测

Risk Cost Forecast Based on CBR and RBR

由于国际工程存在的风险因素众多且信息来源具有很大局限性,国际工程风险费用的预测是一个难点,但其对于国际工程的投标报价竞争力以及项目的最终盈利能力而言又具有重要影响。因此,论文构建了基于事例推理(CBR)与规则推理(RBR)的风险费用预测模型,首先在总结、归纳相关文献的基础上提出基于特征属性的风险案例表示方法,为风险案例的知识提取与检索奠定了基础;然后,选出合适的案例检索方法,对风险费用的影响因素进行分析归纳,在此基础上利用事例推理与规则推理的相关理论构建了国际工程风险费用预测的基本框架;最后结合Fisher聚类法、集对分析理论与模糊权重理论建立了国际工程风险费用预测模型,并通过实例应用验证了模型的有效性与可行性。

The forecast on risk cost of international construction and engineering project is difficult because there are so many risk factors and the information sources are limited. Meanwhile, it is crucial for the international bidding and pricing competency, and the final profit capacity of international projects. In this article, forecast model of international construction and engineering project cost risk based on CBR and RBR was proposed. Firstly, a risk case representation method based on feature attributes is put forward on the basis of summarizing and inducing the related documents, which lays the foundation for the knowledge extraction and retrieval of risk cases. Then, the basic framework of international engineering risk cost forecast is constructed by selecting the appropriate case retrieval method, and analyzing the impact factors of the risk cost, and then using the theory of case reasoning and rule reasoning. Finally, the forecast model of international construction and engineering risk cost is established based on the Fisher clustering method, the set pair analysis theory and the fuzzy weight theory, and the validity and feasibility of the model is verified by examples.