中国省域碳排放总量控制目标分解研究

Decomposition of Carbon Cap Targets at Provincial Level in China: A Case Study of Zhejiang

为确保实现中国CO2排放在2030年左右达到峰值的承诺,在"十三五"期间探索开展省级层面的碳排放总量控制目标分解是关键措施。基于地区差异构建碳排放总量控制目标分解模型,综合考虑公平、效率和可行三类因素,本研究以浙江省为例,将2013-2020年碳排放总量控制目标分解到各个地市。研究结果表明,浙江省11个地市的碳排放总量控制目标在四类不同情景下基本保持一致。不同权重情景下的结果均有效反映出各地市在经济发展、人民生活和技术水平等方面的差异,表明通过该模型分解碳排放总量控制目标基本合理可行。偏重公平的方案在协调区域经济发展差异方面具有较大优势,该方案一定程度上可倒逼传统经济发展模式向低碳经济转型;偏重效率的方案可最大效率地利用碳排放空间,但需给予足够的资金和技术支持;"十三五"期间我国建成统一的碳交易市场后,偏重可行的分配方案可通过碳交易市场手段实现各地市碳减排和经济发展的双赢。此外,充分发挥战略预留碳排放指标的作用可有效保证各省实现碳排放总量控制目标。尽管在选择分配指标项和分解战略预留目标时仍然存有不确定性,但可随着省级应对气候变化统计体系的建立与完善,以及各省"国民经济和社会发展十三五规划"的出台而逐步减小。本研究创新性地为中国经济发达省份开展碳排放总量控制目标的地市分解工作提供兼顾公平、效率和可行的方案。

In order to realize the promise that China will achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030, it is a key step to explore the decomposition of carbon cap targets at provincial level during the 13th Five Year Plan period. Based on the regional difference and comprehensively considering equity, efficiency and feasibility, we proposed a decomposition model of carbon cap targets and used it to allocate the targets of Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2020 to the 11 cities. The results showed that the carbon cap targets of l 1 cites were nearly consistent under four different scenarios. Under four scenarios with different weights, our results can effectively reflect the regional difference of 11 cites with respects to economic development, living standards and technology levels. This further demonstrates that it is reasonable and feasible to allocate carbon cap targets with our model. The scheme that prefers equity has the advantage in coordinating regional differences in economic development, which can ＇ force＇ the low-carbon transformation of economic development. The scheme that prefers efficiency can achieve maximum use of carbon emission space, but adequate financial and technical supports are needed. After China establishes the unified carbon emission trading market during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the scheme that prefers feasibility can achieve a win-win situation of realizing both economic development and carbon reduction through the carbon market. In addition, we can give full play to the strategic reserved carbon cap targets to ensure tile commitment of carbon cap targets in every province. Although there are still some uncertainties in choosing the regional decomposition indexes and allocating the strategic reserved carbon cap targets, we can gradually reduce them with the establishment of provincial statistical systems for addressing climate change and announcement of 13th Five Year Plan. This research creatively provides provincial decomposition method of carbon cap targets that balances equity, efficiency and feasibility for the developed provinces in China.