基于时变参数模型的中国区域碳排放权价格调控机制研究

China's Regional Carbon Emission Allowance Prices Regulation Mechanism Based on TVP Model

区域碳排放权价格的差异制约了中国全国性碳市场的建立,亟需寻求价格调控方式。本文通过Phillips and Sul模型分析了北京、深圳、上海等碳排放权价格收敛性,结果显示单纯市场作用无法形成统一价格,进而运用状态空间方法构建时变参变量模型,从能源价格、经济发展和政策制度等角度,分析了碳排放权价格差异的影响因素组成结构,提出了价格调控机制。认为降低焦炭价格、减缓经济发展速度、提升交易市场活跃程度以及加大违约处罚力度,是缩小中国区域碳排放权价格差异,形成统一价格的有效调控方式,为建立和完善中国统一的碳排放权交易体系提供了决策支持。

Price difference of the regional carbon emissions allowances will restrain the establishment of China＇ s national carbon market, so price controlling is urgently needed. We evaluate the convergence of carbon emission allowances in Beijiug, Shanghai and Shenzhen based on the Phillips and Sul models, and the result shows that the pure market forces can not form a unified price. We analyze the influence factors of price difference of carbon emission allowance from the perspectives of energy prices, economic growth and policy restrictions, and propose a price control mechanism based on TVP model. We believe that slowing down the economic growth, increasing trading market dynamism and default penalties are effective measures to narrow the price difference of China＇ s regional carbon emission allowances, and then it can form a unified price. It will provide decision support for establishing and perfecting China＇ s unified carbon emissions trading system.