市场风险、价格预期与农户种植行为响应——基于粮食主产区的实证

Farmers' planting responses to market risks and price expectations: An empirical analysis of major grain producing areas

在深化农村改革的背景下,如何发挥市场在种植业资源配置中的决定作用和政府的引导作用是重要的现实问题。分析农户对价格机制的行为响应是破题的关键。采用种植行为响应模型检验了价格预期、农产品市场风险对粮食主产区农户种植行为的影响。结果表明:农户会根据粮食价格、油料价格和化肥价格调整其种植行为,粮食价格预期增加1%,粮食种植面积约增加0.13%;油料价格预期增加1%,粮食种植面积约增加0.16%,有效灌溉面积约增加0.30%,化肥投入量约增加0.29%;化肥价格增加1%,粮食种植面积约减少0.08%,化肥投入量约减少0.20%。另外,农户会对农产品市场风险做出响应,随着市场风险的增加,粮食种植面积、有效灌溉面积和化肥投入量都会减少,而非农收入的增加会降低市场风险对农业生产的冲击。为了保障主产区粮食种植业的可持续发展,政府应该监测并引导农户的价格预期、推广粮油作物价格险和创新目标收入制度,以完善粮食主产区的价格支持体系和利益补偿机制。

With the deepening of rural reform, it becomes an important and realistic problem about how to realize the market and government functions on the allocation of agricultural resources. The key to solving the problem is the analysis on how farmers react to price changes. Applying the planting behavior response model, this paper analyzed the impact of price expectations and agricultural market risks on grain farmers＇ planting responses. Results show that farmers will adjust their planting behaviors according to the grain, oilseed and fertilizer prices. When the expected grain price increases by 1%, the expected planting area will increase by 0.13%. When expected oilseed price increases by 1%, the expected grain planting area will increase by 0.16%, the effective irrigation area will increase by 0.30% and fertilizer input will increase by about 0.29%. When fertilizer prices increase by 1%, grain planting area will decrease by 0.08% and fertilizer input will decrease by about 0.20%. In addition, farmers will respond to the agricuhural market risks. With the increased exposure to market risks, grain planting area, effective irrigation area, and fertilizer input will decrease. But the increase of non- agricultural income will reduce the impact of market risks on agricultural production, In order to ensure the sustainable development of the main grain crops, the Government should monitor and guide farmers＇ price expectations, promote price insurance of crops and target income system, and to perfect the price support system and the benefit compensation mechanism of major grain producing areas.