新疆阿克苏市城市化发展与耕地资源协调性

Coordination Degree Between Cultivated Land Resources and Urbanization in Aksu City

为了正确认识干旱区绿洲城市化与耕地资源之间的矛盾,对推进城市化进程提供科学依据,以新疆阿克苏市为研究对象,以阿克苏市社会经济统计数据和1990、2000、2010、2014年4期Landsat TM、ETM+、OLI遥感数据为基础,研究阿克苏市城市化水平和耕地资源的动态变化情况,并通过回归模型和协调度分析法分析二者间的相关性与协调性。近26年(1989—2014年)数据的分析结果表明:阿克苏市的城市化水平处于"增长—下降—增长"的波动性增长态势,年均增长率达到0.36%,其中2001年后的增长是第二和第三产业的迅速发展而引起;耕地面积也处于"增长—下降—增长"态势,其中2004年前后耕地面积下降的主要原因是部分耕地资源被划归于阿拉尔市,2007年后回升的原因是阿克苏市社会经济发展需求的增加;耕地资源与城市化之间的关系1989—2003表现为正相关,2004—2014年表现为负相关。它们之间的协调性主要体现出基本协调和不协调的更迭式发展状态。

In order to understand the contradiction between cultivated land resources and urbanization andprovide scientific basis for urbanization process of oasis in arid area, Aksu City in Xinjiang was taken as thestudy area. Dynamic change of cultivated land resources and urbanization level from 1989 to 2014 wereanalyzed. Then the correlation and coordination between cultivated land resources and urbanization wereanalyzed by linear regression model and coordination degree analysis based on socio- economic data andLandsat images obtained from TM, ETM＋, OLI sensors in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2014. The results showed that：urbanization level of Aksu City showed a fluctuant trend of＂increase- decrease- increase＂with an averageannual increasing rate of 0.36%. The main reason for its rapid increase after 2001 was the boomeddevelopment of the second and third industry. The cultivated land area also showed a trend of＂increase-decrease-increase＂. The main reason for the decrease of cultivated land area in 2004 was that part area ofAksu City was dealt out for the new established Alar City. To meet the demand of socio- economicdevelopment, the cultivated land area recovered rapidly after 2007. Urbanization degree and cultivated landarea showed a positive correlation from 1989 to 2003, and a negative correlation from 2004 to 2014, and the relationship between them demonstrated an alternation of＂basic coordination-incoordination＂.