对中国成品油市场的几点认识

Some Thoughts on Refined Oil Market in China

通过回顾中国石油行业由计划经济管理体制改为市场化运作管理模式后的发展历程,阐述了当前中国成品油市场的几点变化:供需基本面转变,消费结构和需求规律发生变化,替代加快,出口常态化;对未来中国成品油市场供需平衡情况进行了预测;分析了低油价环境、市场化改革、批零价差变化、节能环保以及替代燃料等因素对成品油市场趋势的影响。面对未来中国国内资源较目前过剩程度进一步加剧的局面,增强出口资源的竞争力,开拓新的出口目标市场已经成为中国石油企业迫切需要研究和解决的问题。

The article reviews the development stages of China's oil industry after the change from planned economy operation mode to market-oriented operation mode. It elaborates several changes of oil market in China. The fundamentals of supply and demand are changed, the consumption structure and demand regular pattern are changed. Substitution accelerates and export becomes normal. The supply and demand balance of refined oil market in China is predicted. The article also analyzes the impact of low oil price environment, the market-oriented reform, the price gap change of wholesale and retail, energy saving and environmental protection, alternative fuels and other factors on oil market trends. Because of the further aggravated overcapacity of domestic resources, it's an urgent problem needed to be studied and solved for China's oil enterprises to enhance the competitiveness of the export resources and expand new target market.