金融深化与经济增长的因果关系检验——基于我国的实证分析

On the Causal Relationship Between Financial Deepening and Economic Growth:an Empirical Analysis Based on China

选择1993-2014年间的相关数据对我国金融深化与经济增长的因果关系进行分析,对金融深化的三个指标与经济增长率作基于VAR模型的Granger因果检验,结果发现:金融相关率与经济增长率在短期内呈现负的相关关系,从长期来看金融相关率的发展有利于经济增长率的提高。货币化率与经济增长率之间存在正相关关系,但货币化程度的影响力在长期内是逐渐减弱的。实际利率对经济增长的影响作用不明显,不存在因果关系。

The author of this paper has analyzed the data about financial deepening and economic growth during the period of 1993--2014 in China, and conducted the Granger causality test of the three indicators of financial deepening and economic growth, based on the VAR model. The results show that there is a negative correlation between financial interrelations ratio and economic growth rate in the short term, but in the long term the development of financial interrelation ratio contributes to economic growth, that there is a positive correlation between the currency rate and economic growth but in the long run the influence of monetization is decreasing; and that the influence of real interest rates on economic growth is not obvious, with no causal relationship.