外贸引力模型视角下中国省际贸易潜力测度模型研究与贸易特征解析

Study of measurement model for Chinese inter-provincial trade potential and analysis of trade characteristics based on the foreign trade gravity model

为了解决中国省际贸易流量数据资料收集难度大、非连续、统计口径不一致等问题,采用2001年—2003年28个省份省际面板数据,在外贸引力模型的框架下构建、扩展、估计省际贸易潜力测度模型。实证检验表明:构建的测度模型符合个体固定效应,并通过了多维度稳健性检验,可以用于省际贸易潜力估算。通过模型估算2001年和2012年省际贸易数据,对省际贸易特征进行解析。结果发现,中国省际贸易集中度偏高,随着时间推移,各省份省际贸易差距增大,省际贸易趋于不平衡,多数省份处于省际贸易"入超"状态;省际贸易空间流向使得市场整合、分割、局部市场一体化、国内市场一体化并存。总体而言,中国各省区产品和服务市场是趋于整合的。

In order to solve the problems of inter-provincial trade flows data such as being hard to collect, discontinuous and inconsistent to statistical definition, the paper constructs, extends and estimates measurement model for inter-provincial trade potential under the frame of foreign trade gravity model based on the inter-provincial panel data of 28 provinces at home in 2001-2003. Empirical tests show that the measurement model meets individual fixed effects, passes the multi-dimensional robustness tests, and can be used to estimate the potential for inter-provincial trade. Further, the inter provincial trade data in 2001 to 2012 is estimated with the model, and the characteristics of inter-provincial trade are analyzed. The result shows that the concentration of inter-provincial trade is higher in China, as time going, the gap of inter-provincial trade among the provinces enlarges, inter-provincial trade tends to be unbalanced, and the most provinces keep trade deficit in inter-provincial trade. Inter provincial trade space flowing makes the coexistence market of integration, segmentation, integration of the local market and the integration of domestic market. Overall, the national goods and services market tends to be integrated in the provinces.