不确定性、意识形态与国际冲突——为什么独裁政治与民主政治难以和平共处

Uncertainty,ideology and international conflict

所有政治人都面临着程度各不相同的不确定性,不确定性的程度受因果知识和信息的拥有量的影响。独裁政治的存在基础是国民具有高度的不确定性。意识形态有助于统治者增加和维持国民的不确定性,而实施思想独裁有助于保持意识形态的垄断地位,从而巩固不确定性。如果国际上的民主政治能够降低国民的不确定性,那么统治者或者觊觎政权的竞争者将培植攻击民主国家的意识形态的力量;民主国家也知道这一点,它将努力消灭独裁政治制度。因此独裁政治与民主政治难以和平共处。

All political people face the uncertainty that the degree have nothing in common with each other.The degree of the uncertainty is affected by cause and effect knowledge and the owning amount of the information.The existance foundation of the autocracy is the submember's uncertainty.The ideology is conducive to increase and keep the submember's uncertainty for the ruler.However,implement thought dictatorship is good to keep the monopoly status of ideology for the ruler.If the democratic politics in the world can reduce the uncertainty of the sub member of a country the ruler or regime's competitor will cultivate ideology of attacking the democratic state.The democratic state knows this too,he will make great efforts to eliminate the dictatorship political system.So autocracy and democratic politics are difficult to coexist with peacefully.