金融集聚与江淮城市群城镇化空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Financial Agglomeration and Urbanization of Jianghuai Urban

基于江淮城市群2002—2012年10个城市面板数据,构建金融集聚和人口城镇化相关的指标体系,通过计算金融集聚Moran’s I得出江淮城市群具有空间正相关关系,并以此建立了金融集聚和人口城镇化空间滞后模型和空间误差模型。结果显示,江淮城市群金融集聚对人口城镇化发展有促进作用,且处于上升发展趋势。控制变量人口密度、二三产业从业人员比率对人口城镇化的发展有一定影响。

The present paper collects a database of 10 cities in Jianghuai urban agglomeration from 2002 to 2012 and constructs a target system of financial agglomeration, financial diffusion and urbanization of population. By conducting financial agglomeration, Moran＇s I argued that cities in Jianghuai urban agglomeration have a spatial positive correla- tion relationship. Based on this, Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model were constructed. The results indicate that financial agglomeration of Jianghuai urban agglomeration has a positive effect on urbanization of population. Be- sides, the positive effects become more and more apparent. Density of population and employees work in secondary and tertiary industry, playing as control variables, have a strong influence on urbanization of population.