气候变暖背景下秦岭地区≥10℃热量的时空变化

Spatial-temporal Variation of Heat Resources at Temperature Above 10℃ in Qinling Mountains Under Global Climate Warming

在全球气候变暖背景下,秦岭地区农业热量的时空变化研究对调整农业种植结构,优化农业产业布局和实现农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。依据1961—2010年秦岭南北71个气象台站的资料,应用气候倾向率、Mann-kendall突变检验、Moralt小波分析和ArcGIS空间插值法,对秦岭南北近50年来≥10℃的积温、初日、终日和持续日数的变化特征进行分析。结果显示：（1）秦岭南北≥10℃的积温和持续日数均呈增加趋势,初日为提前趋势,终日为推迟趋势;秦岭北部≥10℃初日变化速率低于秦岭南部,秦岭北部≥10℃积温、持续日数和终日的变化速率高于秦岭南部。（2）秦岭北部≥10℃积温、初日、终日和持续日数发生突变的年份分别为1995年、2003年、1973年和2000年,秦岭南部≥10℃积温、初日、终日和持续日数发生突变的年份分别为2004年、1995年、1974年和1977年。秦岭南北部≥10℃积温具有明显的20-30年和7-10年的振荡周期。（3）空间上,秦岭地区≥10℃积温的空间变化相似,整体呈增加趋势。

Under the background of global warming, studying the spatial-temporal variation of heat resourcesin Qinling Mountains is of great significance to adjusting agricultural cropping system, optimizing agriculturalproduction distribution, and achieving the sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the daily averagetemperature data collected from 71 weather stations in Qinling Mountains from 1961 to 2010, methods likeclimate tendency rate, Mann-kendall, Morelt wavelet analysis and spatial interpolation of Arc GIS were used toanalyze the heat resources variation of accumulated temperature, duration days, first day and last day of thedaily temperature which was steadily above 10℃. The results showed that：（1） the duration days andaccumulated temperature of the daily temperature above 10℃ in Qinling Mountains steadily increased, the firstday was in advance, the last day was delayed; the change rate of the first day in the northern Qinling Mountainswas lower than that in the southern Qinling Mountains, while the change rates of the duration days, the last dayand the accumulated temperature of the daily temperature above 10℃ in northern Qingling Mountains werehigher than that in the southern Qinling Mountains;（2） the abrupt change of the duration days, the accumulatedtemperature, the first day and the last day of the daily temperature above 10℃ in northern Qinling Mountains appeared in 1995, 2003, 1973 and 2000, the abrupt change of the duration days, the accumulated temperature,the first day and the last day of the daily temperature above 10℃ in southern Qinling Mountains appeared in2004, 1995, 1974 and 1977; the accumulated temperature above 10℃ in Qinling Mountains presentedperiodical oscillations of 20-30 years and 7-10 years;（3） in spatial, the accumulated temperature above 10℃in Qinling Mountains had similar changes and an overall increasing trend.