2016年台湾民进党的南海政策评估与展望

Forecast on Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party's Policy Alternation of the South China Sea in 2016

自2008年至今,台湾在马英九的任内,维护两岸和平稳定,针对南海问题坚持强调拥有主权,并提出"南海和平倡议";此期间大陆方面,虽然不断呼吁希望两岸能够共同维护南海的"祖权",不过并无明显的进展;这样的态势,2016年若由民进党执政之后,可能会有所改变。原因就在于,民进党内部人士已经公开出现"放弃南海U形线和太平岛"之类的言论,此类论调是否会成为民进党主流观点尚不得而知,但是一旦确定成形,过去的努力都将被推翻,并将对未来两岸关系产生重大影响。

During the presidency of Ma Ying-Jeou from 2008 so far,he have insisted that China has sovereignty over South China Sea and proposed South China Sea Peace Initiative;besides,he also advanced the maintenance of steady and peaceful cross-Straits relations.Although the mainland has kept calling for the joint efforts of both sides to maintain the sovereignty over South China Sea,the progress is tiny.The situation may have changed in 2016 if the Democratic Progressive Party has the presidency.The reason is that inside the Party,some hold the opinion that China should give up the U-shape Line as well as Itu Aba Island.It is still unclear whether the opinion will be prevailing in 2016 after the Democratic Progressive Party has the presidency.Once it became the majority view,efforts made before would be meaningless,and would have great effects on the future cross-Straits relations.