基于主成分分析法的博斯腾湖水位变化驱动力研究

Water Variation Level Drivers of Bosten Lake Based on Principal Components Analysis

利用1958~2010年博斯腾湖流域水文、气象与社会经济资料,采用相关分析法与主成分分析法,分析了博斯腾湖水位动态变化情况及其驱动机理。结果表明,1）博斯腾湖水位从1958年的1 048.0 m下降至2010年的1 045.75 m,净下降2.25 m。水位变化经历了波动式下降（1958~1987年）→急剧上升（1988~2002年）→急剧下降（2003~2010年）的变化过程;2）博斯腾湖水位变化主要是由入湖流量、降水与气温波动等自然因素和耕地面积与人口的增加等人为因素共同作用的结果,特别是入湖流量变化是湖面水位升降的主要影响因子。研究结果能为干早区湖泊水资源的合理利用和生态环境的保护提供科学依据。

The variations and driving forces of water level of Bosten Lake were studied based on the ob- served hydrological, metrological and socio-economic data in 1958 -2010, and using the methods such as correlation analyses and principal component analyses. Results of the study indicated that ： 1 ） The wa- ter level of Bosten Lake decreased from 1 048.0 in 1958 to 1 045.75 in 2010 with net decline of 2. 25 m. The changing trend of annual water level was ＂fluctuated decrease（ within 1958 -1987）--remarkable in- crease （ within 1988 - 2002 ） --remarkable decrease （ within 2003 - 2010）＂ ;2 ） The variation of water lev- el of Bosten Lake was caused mainly by the co-effects of the variations of natural factors such as flows into the lake, precipitation and temperature, and human factors such as the changes in farmland area and population growth, especially, the variations of flows into the lake was the main driving factor that effects the variation of water level. Results of the study could provide scientific basis for reasonable use of water resources and eco-environmental protection of arid zone.