1961—2010年辽宁省冬季采暖期变化及采暖能耗研究

Change of heating period and heating energy consumption in winter from 1961 to 2010 in Liaoning province

利用1961—2010年辽宁省52个气象站逐日气温观测资料和中国统计年鉴数据,参照采暖供热等相关标准,运用数理统计方法,综合分析辽宁省冬季采暖期变化特征及气候变暖对采暖能耗的影响,建立采暖能耗与采暖度日关系的模型。结果表明:20世纪80年代开始,辽宁省出现了显著增暖的趋势;随着气候变暖,辽宁省采暖期起始日期逐年推后,采暖期终止日期则以1—2 d/10 a的趋势提前,全省平均采暖期长度缩短了8 d;采暖度日数减少趋势明显,2009年达最低值。辽宁省冬季寒冷的时间呈持续缩短的趋势,单位面积的能源消耗在2003年后期趋于稳定,供暖面积年增长率在2008年后降至8.0%,但能源消耗年增长率低于1.0%,采暖期耗能定量评估结果比实际能耗偏小1.0%。

Based on daily air temperature data from 52 weather stations and corresponding data from the China sta- tistical yearbook in Liaoning province during 1961-2010, characteristics of heating period and effect of warming on heating energy consumption in winter were analyzed by a mathematical statistics method, considering heating standards. A relationship model of heating energy consumption and heating degree-day was established. The results indicate that it is in a significantly wanning trend since 1980s in Liaoning province. The beginning date of heating period delays year by year, while its lasting date is in advance of 1-2 days per decade. Mean duration of heating pe- riod shortens 8 days in Liaoning province. The number of heating degree-day decreases significantly, especially in 2009. The number of cold day in winter is in a decreasing trend. Energy consumption per unit area becomes stable after late 2003. Annual growth rate of heating area drops to 8.0% after 2008 ,while that of energy consumption is reduced to 1.0%. Thus,assessment result shows that energy consumption during heating period is 1.0% less than the actual value.