基于GM(1,1)模型的矿山开采沉陷预测

Forecast of Mining Subsidence Based on GM(1,1)Model

矿山开采沉陷的因素具有复杂性,但可以利用预测理论加以预测。在分析矿山开采沉陷系统灰色因素的基础之上,提出了将开采沉陷下沉量作为矿山开采沉陷系统的特征量处理,运用灰色理论对开采沉陷下沉量进行预测。灰色理论运用预测对象自身的时间序列,而与预测对象相关联的其他因素没有参与运算和建模,因此运用起来比较简单使用,不用考虑其他复杂的要素。灰色理论在矿山开采沉陷预测中发挥了重要的作用。

The factor of mining subsidence is complex, however, which can be obtained by using forecast theory. Based on the analysis of grey attribute for mining subsidence system, the amount of mining subsidence be regaided as behavior char acter in mining subsidence system ,and forecasted mining subsidence by using grey theory, the analysis of grey bases on the time series of object itself, so it uses relatively simple to use without considering other complex elements, the analysis of grey in mining subsidence prediction played an important role.