摘要
对多式联运分运人选择问题分析的基础上,运用决策理论和博弈理论设计了基于两阶段选择的综合评价模型.考虑不完全信息的影响,首先联运经营人通过设置"门槛"选择候选目标群,引入风险态度因子对不完全信息进行处理,分析了风险偏好对分运人选择策略的影响.其次,考虑成本因素设计了暗标拍卖机制以选择最终的合作伙伴.通过分析候选人静态竞标的博弈行为,得出了博弈的贝叶斯纳什均衡,并据此为联运经营人的机制设计提供决策支持.最后对问题进行了总结.
Based on the analysis of sub-carrier selection problem of multimodal transport, the com- prehensive evaluation model is designed based on two-stage selection by using the decision theory and the game theory. In consideration of the influence of the incomplete information, the inter- modal agents firstly choose candidate group from carriers with qualification to provide transport service for corresponding sections. The risk attitude factors are introduced to process the incom- plete information and to analyze the influence of risk preference on the carrier selection. Then, the sealed-bid auction mechanism is designed to choose the final coorperative partner with considera- tion of cost factors. Bayesian Nash equilibrium of bidding is obtained by analyzing the game be- haviors of the candidate＇s static bidding,which provides the decision support for the intermodal a- gents. Finally, the problems are summarized.
出处
《兰州交通大学学报》
CAS
2015年第6期65-69,76,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金(61164003)
关键词
分运人选择
两阶段法
风险态度
贝叶斯纳什均衡
sub-carrier selection
two-stage approach
risk attitude
Bayesian Nash equilibrium
